ALP holds massive two-party preferred lead in Melbourne and amongst women

The ending of the lockdown has seen the ALP’s lead strengthen significantly among key demographic groups since mid-October with country Victorians swinging behind the Andrews Government to show the ALP on 52% (up 5.5%) compared to the L-NP on 48% (down 5.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

An analysis of this data shows the drop in the coalition support has come about after a slight rise in support for the Liberal party but a near halving of support for the Nats.

Whilst the Libs have gone from 31.5% to 32.5% support in country areas, and Labor has gone from 29.5% to 41.5%, the Nats have crashed from 13.5% to just 7% in Nov 2020.

This continues a long-term downtrend for the Nats over the last 35 years and does not auger well for the future of this party. The Nats seem to be losing their way around Australia with apparently conflicting policies in different states and one member after another resigning over questionable behaviour and or views that do not sit with the general public. 

A comment from one ex-member of the Nats made to us last week was;

“There are many within the South Gippsland shire who believe the Nationals have become ineffective since the local members supported the sacking of an elected council without any evidence yet to be identified”

With Bass going over to Labor from the Liberals at the last state election and with election boundaries due to affect the Gippsland South electorate, the local Nats member might be concerned for his seat. The lower house member, Mr Danny O’Brien was elected to the seat of Gippsland South after the retirement of Mr Peter Ryan, the long-standing long-time member and leader of the National Party in Victoria who served 22 plus years in parliament.

Mr O’Brien’s electorate covers the whole of South Gippsland and a large part of Wellington Shire. His office is in Sale. He opened a Leongatha office in 2015 but closed it in 2019 when the lease expired. Mr O’Brien said that he opened the office for meetings by appointment in January 2015 and did not continue the lease when it expired in January 2019, because he could no longer justify the cost.  He said that while the office was very handy for appointments, there were not enough to justify maintaining an office full-time.

It is claimed by the Nats on their website that they are the best political party to represent rural Victoria. That may well have been the case in the past but nowadays they appear to be relics of the past and lacking a useful function for South Gippsland going forward.

The next state election is due to be held on 26 November 2022 when all seats in the upper and lower house will be up for grabs.