Riding the Sixth Wave: Climate Change and Adaption
In the heated debate of the past decade the confusion between fact and fantasy has led to a great folly for Australians. We have lost our perspective on the actual science. We have been seduced by populist politicians, a global network of fossil funded climate denial institutes and a ‘post truth’ media. How many bushfires do we need to have? How many dead native animals and extinct species? Do we need to see the final death of the barrier reef to act?
We are on the cusp of the sixth wave of sustainable technologies. Renewable energies will make up to 50% of energy generation by 2025 and potentially 100% by 2030 (Professor Andrew Blakers & Australian Renewable Energy Agency); There are already early signs of a renaissance in manufacturing underway in Australia in new green metal production, EVs, batteries, and renewable energy.
We will be exporting renewable energy by an underwater high-voltage direct current linking to Singapore (Sun Cable’s outside Tennant Creek) and to Indonesia (CWP Energy Asia and InterContinental Energy,) from the Pilbara. Sanjeev Gupta will be making green steel in Whyalla, Korea Metals green magnesium in Townsville.
We already have 3 emerging EV companies (Clean Energy Electric Vehicle (ACE-EV) Adelaide, Queensland company Bustech, AVASS at Avalon) Forbes magazine believes that they will be comparable to internal combustion-powered cars by or before 2025 and overwhelmingly dominant by 2030. According to Minister Simon Birmingham, we may become a superpower in green lithium production and batteries.
Successful countries and regions that embrace the new waves of technological change became the new winners. The question is “Do we capture the new sustainable technological wave or are we dumped by it?” “Cheap, abundant renewable energy will spark the emergence of whole new industries, such as renewable hydrogen, energy-intensive manufacturing, zero-emissions steel and electricity exports to our Asian neighbours.” “The Million Jobs Plan”
Beyond Zero Emissions, 2020
Where the hell we are going? The fossil economy is dying before our very eyes. Our major fossil export countries, Japan, South Korea, and China are committed to zero carbon by 2050. New clusters of opportunities are emerging from the fringes to the mainstream in:
Green metals mining and manufacturing
Low carbon renewables
Regenerative farming
EV vehicles and buses
Carbon sequestration
Battery Energy Storage
Resource efficiency
Biotechnology
We cannot afford to lose the emerging new opportunities, letting them proverbially slip through our fingers. We need to resolve a number of ‘post facts’ peddled fallacies that have stalled our adaption and ability to seize opportunities. These include that:
There are only costs to a sustainable transition
There is no cost to inaction on climate change
Fossil including the gas economy will continue unabated
There will be no carbon tariffs imposed on our high carbon exports
Do we pursue the early mover advantage? Do we capitalise on the emergence of green manufacturing and minerals processing? Do we become a green energy superpower? Or do we let others to take the lead and fill the gaps?
We have a significant competitive advantage of our renewable energy capacity and the new hydrogen economy. The Beyond Zero Emissions “Million Job Plan” estimates it could be worth more than coal exports in 10-20 years, $65B by 2040.
“Australia will lose more than $3 trillion and 880,000 jobs over 50 years if climate change is not addressed. If we do act over the next few years, then in just 50 years there is a benefit to the economy of $680 billion. We’ll have an economy 2.6 per cent bigger, generating 250,000 jobs, so this tells us if you are pro-growth and pro-jobs then we need to act on climate change now.”-Pradeep Philip-Deloitte Access Economics 2020
Australia’s social and technological ingenuity is second to none when we embrace change and the realities of the emerging sixth wave and its possibilities. When we finally reinvest in our universities, the CSIRO, and our innovators. Our future has always been enhanced when we have been open to change and drawn on our unique innovation capability. The future could be ours! We are at a dramatic global inflection point, where on one side we can ride the sixth wave to a just transition or we can be dumped in a fossil backwater of the global economy. The choice is ours!
Let’s ride the sixth wave together!
Andrew McEwen November 2020
Andrew has an MBA, is a business strategist and an accredited scenario planner
Editor Comment: This article references an earlier article in this newspaper called “Creative destruction: the COVID-19 economic crisis accelerating the demise of fossil fuels from Issue 1 August 2020.